Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect-英语听力mp3下载无损flac下载
Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect-英语听力在线试听免费歌词下载
[00:01.48]Lesson 14
第14节 [00:03.37]The Butterfly Effect
蝴蝶效应 [00:12.92]Why do small errors make it impossible to predict the weather system with a high degree of accuracy?
为什么小误差使得人们不可能高准确度地预测天气(系统)? [00:23.11]Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative,
世界上最好的两三天以上的天气预报具有很强的猜测性 [00:29.38]and beyond six or seven they are worthless.
如果超过六七天，天气预报就没有了任何价值 [00:33.23]The Butterfly Effect is the reason.
原因是蝴蝶效应 [00:36.14]For small pieces of weather --
对于小片的恶劣天气 [00:38.31]-- and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards --
对一个全球性的气象预报员来说，“小”可以意味着雷暴雨和暴风雪 [00:44.49]any prediction deteriorates rapidly.
任何预测的质量会很快下降 [00:47.67]Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features,
错误和不可靠性上升，接踵而来的是一系列湍流的徵状 [00:54.17]from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.
从小尘暴和暴风发展到只有卫星上可以看到的席卷整块大陆的旋涡 [01:02.68]The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart,
现代气象模型以一个坐标图来显示，图中每个点大约是间隔60英里 [01:08.82]and even so, some starting data has to be guessed,
既使是这样，有些开始时的资料也不得不依靠推测 [01:13.27]since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere.
因为地面工作站和卫星不可能看到地球上的每一个地方 [01:18.28]But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart,
假设地球上可以布满传感器，每个相隔1英尺 [01:23.92]rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere.
按1英尺的间隔从地面一直排列到大气层的顶端 [01:29.24]Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature,
再假定每个传感器都极极端准确地读出了温度 [01:34.60]pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want.
气压、湿度和气象学家需要的任何其他数据 [01:41.09]Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point
在正午时分，一个功能巨大的计算机搜集了所有的资料，并算出在每一个点上时可能出现的情况 [01:48.75]at 12：01, then 12：02, then 12：03...
在12:01, 然后 12:02, 然后 12:03 [01:56.86]The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away.
计算机无法推断出1个月以后的某一天，新泽西州的普林斯顿究竟是晴天还是雨天 [02:06.64]At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about,
正午时分，传感器之间的距离会掩盖计算机无法知道的波动 [02:13.59]tiny deviations from the average.
任何偏平均值的变化 [02:16.66]By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away.
到12：01时，那些波动就已经会在1英尺远的地方造成偏差 [02:24.03]Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.
很快这种偏差会增加到尺10英的范围，如此等等，一直到全球的范围
第14节 [00:03.37]The Butterfly Effect
蝴蝶效应 [00:12.92]Why do small errors make it impossible to predict the weather system with a high degree of accuracy?
为什么小误差使得人们不可能高准确度地预测天气(系统)? [00:23.11]Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative,
世界上最好的两三天以上的天气预报具有很强的猜测性 [00:29.38]and beyond six or seven they are worthless.
如果超过六七天，天气预报就没有了任何价值 [00:33.23]The Butterfly Effect is the reason.
原因是蝴蝶效应 [00:36.14]For small pieces of weather --
对于小片的恶劣天气 [00:38.31]-- and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards --
对一个全球性的气象预报员来说，“小”可以意味着雷暴雨和暴风雪 [00:44.49]any prediction deteriorates rapidly.
任何预测的质量会很快下降 [00:47.67]Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features,
错误和不可靠性上升，接踵而来的是一系列湍流的徵状 [00:54.17]from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.
从小尘暴和暴风发展到只有卫星上可以看到的席卷整块大陆的旋涡 [01:02.68]The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart,
现代气象模型以一个坐标图来显示，图中每个点大约是间隔60英里 [01:08.82]and even so, some starting data has to be guessed,
既使是这样，有些开始时的资料也不得不依靠推测 [01:13.27]since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere.
因为地面工作站和卫星不可能看到地球上的每一个地方 [01:18.28]But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart,
假设地球上可以布满传感器，每个相隔1英尺 [01:23.92]rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere.
按1英尺的间隔从地面一直排列到大气层的顶端 [01:29.24]Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature,
再假定每个传感器都极极端准确地读出了温度 [01:34.60]pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want.
气压、湿度和气象学家需要的任何其他数据 [01:41.09]Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point
在正午时分，一个功能巨大的计算机搜集了所有的资料，并算出在每一个点上时可能出现的情况 [01:48.75]at 12：01, then 12：02, then 12：03...
在12:01, 然后 12:02, 然后 12:03 [01:56.86]The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away.
计算机无法推断出1个月以后的某一天，新泽西州的普林斯顿究竟是晴天还是雨天 [02:06.64]At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about,
正午时分，传感器之间的距离会掩盖计算机无法知道的波动 [02:13.59]tiny deviations from the average.
任何偏平均值的变化 [02:16.66]By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away.
到12：01时，那些波动就已经会在1英尺远的地方造成偏差 [02:24.03]Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.
很快这种偏差会增加到尺10英的范围，如此等等，一直到全球的范围
Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect-英语听力热门评论
speculative 推测的， blizzard [ˈblizə(r)d] 暴风雪， deteriorate 恶化，cascade 瀑布；倾泄， turbulent 狂暴的 dust devil 尘卷风 squall 飓风 eddy ['edɪ] 漩涡 humidity 潮湿 meteorologist 气象工作者 fluctuation 波动 deviation [.diːvi'eɪʃ(ə)n] 偏差
cascade 本意是瀑布 这里 应该是 cascade effect的意思 可以百度一下 级联效应
